Researchers say new housing plan fails on affordability

Anthony Marcusa –

In an effort to accelerate con­struction amid a housing crisis, the province is planning to al­low taller and denser buildings around Toronto transit hubs.

According to Mayor Olivia Chow and Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Rob Flack, the plan will enable 1.5 million homes to be built in the next 25 years around 120 transit stations, including Ontario Line subway stations being built in Corktown and Moss Park.

“Toronto needs more afforda­ble housing,” said Chow. “We are tackling the housing cri­sis by cutting red tape to build more homes near transit to sup­port our city’s growth. By build­ing near transit stations, we are providing new residents with convenient and reliable tran­sit options – ultimately getting drivers off the road, reducing gridlock and getting Toronto moving.”

Prentiss Dantzler, an associate sociology professor at the Uni­versity of Toronto, is concerned about the effect of displacement by new buildings.

“We see rates of eviction fil­ings increase as soon as devel­opments start,” he said. “Nearby landlords are speeding up their eviction filings, looking to take advantage of future rents these developments bring. There’s a lot of negative impacts in the short term in pursuit of long-term goals.”

Dantzler also notes that land­lords may undertake renova­tions or sell off parcels of land in order to maximize financial re­turns. Instead of providing more housing to individuals, new de­velopments can cost some peo­ple their homes.

“These initiatives leave peo­ple at risk, including lower in­come and racialized persons,” Dantzler, founder of the Hous­ing Justice Lab at U of T, told the bridge. Stronger tenant pro­tections and social services are needed to make the process more equitable, he said.

David Roberts, director of U of T’s Urban Studies Program, believes the plan does offer val­ue.

“It spreads the densification out in a different way than we had for the last ten or 15 years,” he told the bridge. “Densifica­tion has typically taken place downtown (and) along Yonge Street, and this spreads it out to other places, which I think is needed.”

However, Roberts notes the plan fails to address key finan­cial issues.

“What doesn’t change is the economic situation,” he said. “It’s not a huge infusion of cash into the building sector,” he said. “It doesn’t address a lot of the other factors driving up costs; it doesn’t address land costs, or material costs. It only addresses some of the planning costs.”

“If we’re not doing more to protect affordable housing, just adding more supply isn’t going to solve it,” he said.

“I don’t think we can build our way out of the housing crisis.”

Developments at transit hubs, according to the plan, will be subject to inclusionary zoning, requiring five per cent of the to­tal units or total gross footage to be affordable housing. But Rob­erts says this stipulation won’t have a huge impact.

“There are a lot of ways to get out of that,” he said. “It’s nice that the city and province made this joint announcement, but they have different definitions of ‘affordable’. The devil is in the details.”

The plan comes following an admission by Minister Flack that new home construction in Ontario is at a “standstill.” A recent Royal Bank of Canada report points to several factors, including a trade war, reduced immigration targets, interest rates and the rising cost of liv­ing.

“Significant affordability chal­lenges persist, particularly in high-priced markets like Ontario and B.C,” wrote RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue. “Despite some relief, the share of household income required to cover ownership costs will re­main well above pre-pandemic levels, limiting the pace of re­covery [of the housing market].”

The report said Ontario’s lag in construction was at “the root of the housing crisis,” but Dant­zler disagrees. “We keep build­ing houses that are way too ex­pensive and don’t fit people.”